Trump To Target Democrat House Seats In 2026

First Alberta, then Saskatchewan, British Columbia, and Manitoba are all talking about joining the United States as a block, if they join they would each get 2 senators and some representatives. The total number of House representatives would be kept at 435 and everything would be redistricted in the United States with large states like California and New York losing House seats. Saskatchewan will likely get 2 representatives, Alberta 8 representatives, British Columbia 12 representatives, and Manitoba 2 representatives. Only Edmonton in Alberta and half of British Columbia are liberal, with all the rest being conservative, so I expect 2 representatives from Alberta and 6 representatives from BC to be liberal along with 1 Senator from BC, with the other 16 Representatives and 7 Senators being conservative, a net gain of 8 in the House and 6 in the Senate for conservatives that will caucus with the Republicans.

The current balance of power in the Senate is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents that caucus with the Democrats, and for the first time in history for the upcoming 2026 midterm elections Trump has turned his massive political machine on the Democrats. For the last 8 years Trump used every midterm election and the primary system to handpick MAGA Republicans to run against all Republicans that opposed him who became known as RINOs for Republicans In Name Only. Now Trump has complete control over the Republican Party, out of the 219 Republicans in the House of Representatives less than 10 were not handpicked by Trump, but due to 6 year terms in the Senate Trump has only been able to select some of the senators, but most of the other senators have gone along with Trump’s Make America Great Again conservative agenda.

In 2025 Republicans control the House, Senate, White House, and have a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court thanks to the 3 conservatives appointed by Trump in his first term. So the Republicans get to legislate right? Nope. Because of a little bit of fuckery called the filibuster. The United States Senate allows filibuster, which is where a senator from a minority party can refuse to yield the floor, they can just stand up and babble all day, refusing to yield the floor to anyone, and by using the filibuster minority parties can block all legislation from moving forward simply refusing to allow it to be discussed. So what does this all have to do with some Canadian provinces that are talking about joining the United States? I want to calculate the likelihood of Trump getting a supermajority in the Senate for cloture.

According to the rules of the Senate a filibuster can be ended by a vote of cloture which was reduced from ⅔ to ⅗ of the Senate in 1975, currently 60 out of 100 senators. If the 4 Canadian provinces each got 2 senators that would raise the threshold for cloture to 65 senators out of a total of 108. Even if Trump can hold all of the Senate seats that he has and gets seven senators from Canada that would only be 60 out of 65 votes needed for cloture.

Right now despite the House, Senate, White House and Supreme Court all being controlled by conservatives they can't enact most of their Project 2025 agenda in Congress because of minority Democrat senators filibustering, so instead the Senate is just defunding everything in budgetary committees, which is the only thing they can do that avoids filibuster. The reason The One Big Beautiful Bill was created was because single, large omnibus bills are the only way to get anything through a Senate that lacks a supermajority, the minority will still filibuster, but they'll eventually sign an omnibus bill that among other things funds their own paychecks, and you just shove everything into that one big bill. There are no other laws being passed now in Congress, the Senate has just been defunding things which avoids filibuster, and the president is picking up the slack of no legislation in Congress by writing tons of executive orders, and the Supreme Court is having to rule on legal cases blocking Trump’s executive orders, but Congress itself without a supermajority in the Senate has been handcuffed by the filibuster for decades and can't legislate.

Trump is also trying to flip one or two Senate seats but even that won't be enough for cloture, and there aren’t 5 available Senate seats to flip. So instead the Trump machine is targeting 13 Democrat held House seats in districts that he won, and an additional five or six House seats they feel confident about with Trump’s hand picked and endorsed candidates, backing 18 or 19 for the House and 1 or 2 Senate candidates. The entire force of the Trump machine is now focused on flipping districts for the first time to gain a more comfortable majority in the House that is currently 220 to 213 with 2 vacancies. If he can hold all of the existing districts and pick up 18 more that would shift the balance in the House closer to 238 to 197, a solid 41 vote majority, if the three Canadian provinces join that would add net 8 for the conservatives, bringing the House to 246 to 189, a 57 vote majority. Then there is Texas, where Trump is looking to redistrict 5 Democrat seats out of existence and pick up 5 more Republican seats, giving the Republicans somewhere around 251 to 185, a 66 vote majority. Democrats in California, New York and other states have threatened to redistrict, to which Trump scoffed and pointed out that they were already jerrymandered. It appears as if Texas is not isolated, and other Republican states will redistrict to eliminate jerrymandered districts held by Democrat representatives.

Even if Trump gets a 66 seat majority in the House or more through both redistricting and half of Canada joining, and a 16 seat majority in the Senate with 62 senators out of 108 total he still won't have enough to overcome the filibusters when they are raised to 65 senators, and his entire second term will still be ruled by Executive Orders, Senate Budgetary Committees, occasional Omnibus Bills, and Supreme Court Rulings, with no legislation in Congress other than necessary ones like to fund Congress so they can keep getting their paychecks. Which makes one wonder, what is the point of Congress? In a divided country with the filibuster all they do is grandstand and form investigative committees, but don't actually create laws that change the Constitution or impact people's lives in any significant way, with the exception of no taxes on up to $25,000 in tips or overtime in the One Big Beautiful Bill, but that was apparently Trump's idea or the idea of one of his economic advisors. As long as the filibuster exists and the rule of cloture remains at ⅗ of the Senate every penny we spend on the salaries of Congress is wasted, cloture should be lowered to a simple majority, but I doubt the Republicans could get enough Democrats to go along with lowering it.