How Poland Is Ending The Ukraine War

     Poland and Russia have a very long history of animosity towards each other that goes back at least 800 years, with both invading and taking over each other's countries at different points in the past. Russia most recently participated in the complete partitioning of Poland 231 years ago, and Poland disappearing from the maps for the next 123 years. Poland fought to get their country back, and at the start of World War 1 it finally reappeared on the maps, but then Russia (in the guise of the Soviet Union) ended up controlling Poland by the end of World War 2, and that lasted all the way through 1989.

     As soon as Poland was free of the Soviet Union’s control they started forming alliances, they formed an association with the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, recognizing them as soon as they declared independence from the Soviet Union, before they were recognized by the rest of the international community.

     In 1991 Poland formed the Visegrad Group with Hungary and Czechoslovakia, which then split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. In 1992 Poland joined the Council of Baltic Sea States that included Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. In 1999 Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO. Then in 2004 Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all joined the European Union together, and Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Romania also all joined NATO in 2004.

     After the 2014 coup in the Ukraine and then Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Donbas, in 2015 Poland elected Andrzej Duda as president, who started building Poland's military and encouraging all Polish high school graduates to go to college. At the time only about 10% of high school graduates went to college, now the number is close to 50%, which has resulted in Poland becoming a tech and manufacturing center within Europe, and having an economy that is predicted to eclipse Great Britain within the next few years. Also in 2015 Duda formed the Three Seas Initiative or the 3SI with new partners Croatia and Austria, along with already existing partners Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria. The 3SI was initially focused on mostly economic development, things like roads and trains to connect the member states.

     In 2016, Trump was elected and immediately started telling the EU and NATO that they were not paying enough for their own defense. Few countries took heed to this except for Poland, who were continuing to build their military because they shared a border with Ukraine.

     Then after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russian bombs destroyed all US military equipment including at a base only a few miles away from the Polish border, then Poland really started building up their military, devoting an even larger percentage of their GDP to defense. By 2023 Poland was spending 4% of their GDP on defense and had over 100,000 Active Duty soldiers, with a goal of spending 5% of their GDP on defense and having a 200,000 man standing army within the next few years. In 2023 Greece joined the 3SI and also in 2023 the 3SI made both Ukraine and Moldova, “partner participants,” and everyone started talking about building a coalition Tri-Seas Army to defend against Russia. The 3SI now has all of the former Eastern Bloc and European Soviet states other than Belarus in their coalition. What was formerly the Iron Curtain that protected Russia from Western Europe has completely reversed, and now the 3SI is protecting themselves and Western Europe from Russia.

     Russia has 143 million people with a standing army of 1.32 million men, and a GDP of 1.77 trillion dollars. Ukraine has 43 million people, an Active Duty army of 900,000 men, but only 155 billion in GDP, less than 1/10th of the GDP of Russia. But if you add the combined populations of the 13 member states of the 3SI you get 155 million total population with an Active Duty military of 1.25 million men, and a combined GDP of 2.8 trillion dollars, far in excess of Russia’s GDP. But the 13 member nations of the 3SI only have 350,000 Active Duty troops on their own, so Ukraine’s 900,000 soldiers will make up the vast majority of the combined 1.25 million man Tri-Seas army to oppose Russia, but if the 3SI spends 3% to 5% of all of their combined 2.8 trillion dollar GDP on tanks, planes and missile defense systems they can quickly surpass Russia as far as military equipment goes, and Poland’s plans to expand their military should push the Tri-Seas Army troop totals past Russia’s troop totals.

     Polish President Andrzej Duda helped to found the 3SI in 2015 and continues to head Poland today, and Poland is the largest supporter of Ukraine out of all EU states. The Polish president came to the US in 2024 to ask Congress to continue funding the Ukraine War, but the US would ultimately be happier if the 3SI could just defend themselves and the EU from Russia, and then our contribution would only be selling them weapons and providing advisors.

     Trump will most likely win again in November of 2024, and has already said that he would encourage Russia, “to do whatever the hell they want,” if a NATO country didn't spend enough on defense. "You don't pay your bills, you get no protection. It's very simple." Since the 1950s NATO countries have generally agreed to spend 2% of their GDP on defense, but all of Western Europe doesn't spend 2%. With the exception of Greece and Finland, only new NATO members that used to be under Soviet control spend over 2%, with Poland spending the most at nearly 4%.

     President Duda has made it his personal mission to protect the people of Poland, and by forming the 3SI he has recreated the multicultural Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, uniting almost all of the former Eastern Bloc states against Russia. By including the Ukraine in the 3SI in 2023 President Duda has now forced an end to the Ukraine War, and since the 3SI are holding meetings this summer about plans to start rebuilding Ukraine, this means President Duda can see an end in sight to the Ukraine War within just the next few months, or he wouldn't be talking about the 3SI issuing grants to rebuild Ukraine.

     And unlike the United States that says that Russia can't keep Crimea with their Black Sea naval port in Sebastopol or any of the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine like the Donbas, the 3SI will likely try to end the Ukraine War at the current borders of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, granting Russia all of the territory they annexed between the Donbas and Crimea, and the international community will just have to accept it, and recognize that it is Russian. And it won't be the United States or NATO ending the War, it will be Poland and the 3SI negotiating peace between Ukraine and Russia. NATO was created to try to contain the Soviet Union, really Russia, and now that the former Eastern Bloc or Soviet controlled countries have joined NATO and all united into their own 3SI coalition, they can leverage their massive GDP to end the Russian-Ukraine War all on their own without the rest of NATO, and the main country that is leading the charge is Poland, with their 800 years of experience dealing with the Russians.